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Scientist at the Beneficial AGI Summit predicts human-equivalent Artificial General Intelligence within 3-8 years
Ben Goertzel, a leading authority on AI and its theoretical foundations, proposes that artificial general intelligence (AGI) could possibly be achieved faster than initially predicted. Furthermore, he believes that AI could soon surpass human intelligence, evolving into Artificial Superintelligence, or ASI.
At the latest Beneficial AGI Summit held in Panama, renowned computer scientist Ben Goertzel proposed that the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI) might be closer than previously expected.
In his final statements, Goertzel forecasted that though human-equivalent or superior AI might not be realized until 2029 or 2030, there's a chance it could emerge as soon as 2027.
After reaching this significant point, he suggested that AGI could quickly progress into artificial superintelligence (ASI), encompassing all the accumulated wisdom of human society.
Addressing the conference attendees, Goertzel admitted the ambiguity in the progression of AGI, proclaiming, "Human-level artificial general intelligence has not been achieved by anyone yet; it's unclear when we will reach that milestone."
Nonetheless, he conveyed his conviction that attaining AGI at human level in the forthcoming three to eight years is feasible.
Goertzel's forecast is in line with the projections of other leading figures in the industry. Shane Legg, one of the founding members of Google DeepMind, has proposed that there is an even chance of AGI being developed by 2028. On the other hand, Geoffrey Hinton, who is often referred to as the "AI godfather," anticipates that AGI can be realized within a span of five to 20 years.
Goertzel, recognized for his creation of the human-like robot Sophia, has often theorized about when the "singularity" will occur — the moment artificial intelligence equals and even exceeds human intellect.
Progress in big language models (LLMs) like OpenAI's ChatGPT has edged us closer to the reality of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). However, Goertzel stresses that LLMs by themselves are not the gateway to AGI.
He speculates that as soon as AGI attains the same level of intelligence as humans, it could swiftly improve its own abilities, resulting in a sudden surge of intelligence.
Nonetheless, Goertzel's forecasts are not without reservations. He admits that even an extremely advanced AI wouldn't have a "mind" comparable to humans and underscores the importance of contemplating the societal consequences and ecological effects of AI evolution.
Even with these factors in mind, Goertzel's hypothesis continues to be persuasive, considering the quick advancement of AI in the past few years.
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