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Scientist asserts that Artificial General Intelligence on par with human intelligence could be a reality within 3-8 years at Beneficial AGI Summit
Ben Goertzel, a leading authority on AI and its theoretical dimensions, has proposed that the emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI) could be earlier than initially expected. He further predicts that shortly thereafter, AI might surpass human intelligence, evolving into Artificial Superintelligence, or ASI.
During the latest Beneficial AGI Summit held in Panama, renowned computer scientist Ben Goertzel hinted that the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI) could be closer than previously projected.
In his final comments, Goertzel speculated that achieving AI that matches or surpasses human intelligence may not occur until 2029 or 2030. However, he also suggested it might take place sooner, potentially by 2027.
After reaching this significant point, he suggested that AGI could quickly transform into an artificial superintelligence (ASI), embodying all the accumulated wisdom of human society.
Addressing the conference attendees, Goertzel recognized the unpredictability linked with the advancement of AGI, asserting, "We have yet to develop artificial general intelligence at a human level; everyone is unsure of the exact timeline for achieving this."
Nonetheless, he conveyed his conviction that attaining AGI equivalent to human intelligence in the upcoming three to eight years is a feasible possibility.
Goertzel's forecast is in line with those made by other specialists in the same industry. Shane Legg, who co-founded Google DeepMind, proposes there's an equal probability of AGI being developed by 2028. Meanwhile, Geoffrey Hinton, often referred to as a pioneer in AI, believes AGI could be realized within a span of five to 20 years.
Goertzel, who is recognized for developing the human-like robot Sophia, has often theorized about the "singularity" — the moment when AI equals and outperforms human intellect.
Progress in big language models (LLMs), like OpenAI's ChatGPT, have moved us a step closer to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). However, Goertzel stresses that AGI cannot be achieved through LLMs alone.
He imagines that once AGI attains the same level of intelligence as humans, it could quickly improve its own abilities, resulting in an "intelligence burst."
Goertzel's forecasts, nonetheless, have certain limitations. He admits that even an exceptionally advanced AI wouldn't have a "consciousness" similar to humans. He also emphasizes the necessity to think about the social consequences and ecological effects of AI evolution.
Even with these factors in mind, Goertzel's hypothesis continues to be intriguing, considering the swift advancements in AI in the last few years.
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