Accelerated Timeline for Human-level AGI: Predictions and Implications from AI Expert Ben Goertzel

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Scientist at Beneficial AGI Summit predicts Human-level Artificial General Intelligence within 3-8 years

Ben Goertzel, a leading voice in the field of AI and its concept studies, has hinted that the arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) might be earlier than expected. He further stated that in the near future, AI could surpass human intelligence, evolving into Artificial Superintelligence, or ASI.

During the latest Beneficial AGI Summit held in Panama, renowned computer scientist Ben Goertzel put forward the idea that the arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) might be earlier than what was initially expected.

In his concluding statements, Goertzel anticipated that AI equivalent to or surpassing human intelligence may not be realized until 2029 or 2030, but he also suggested it might occur sooner, possibly even in 2027.

After reaching this significant point, he suggested that AGI might quickly develop into artificial superintelligence (ASI), encompassing all the accumulated wisdom of human society.

Addressing the conference attendees, Goertzel acknowledged the ambiguity involved in the development of AGI, declaring, "Human-level artificial general intelligence has not been developed by anyone so far; no one possesses a definite understanding of when it will be achieved."

Nonetheless, he conveyed his conviction that achieving AGI at par with human intelligence in the coming three to eight years is a feasible possibility.

Goertzel's projection is in line with comparable predictions from other authorities in the same area. Shane Legg, one of the individuals who established Google DeepMind, proposed that there's an equal probability of AGI being created by 2028. On the other hand, Geoffrey Hinton, who is often considered a pioneer in AI, assumes that AGI can be accomplished in a span of five to 20 years.

Goertzel, recognized for his creation of the humanoid robot Sophia, has often pondered about the "singularity" period – the moment when AI equals and even exceeds human intellect.

Progress in big language models (LLMs) like OpenAI's ChatGPT has moved us closer to achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI). However, Goertzel stresses that AGI cannot be achieved through LLMs alone.

He imagines that when AGI attains the intelligence level of a human, it could quickly improve its own abilities, resulting in a "burst of intelligence."

Goertzel's forecasts, however, are not without reservations. He admits that even an exceptionally advanced AI won't have a "mind" similar to humans and underscores the importance of contemplating the societal effects and ecological consequences of AI evolution.

Even with these factors in mind, Goertzel's hypothesis continues to be persuasive, considering the swift advancements in AI in the recent past.

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