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Scientist at Beneficial AGI Summit suggests human-level Artificial General Intelligence might arrive in 3-8 years
Ben Goertzel, a leading expert in AI and its theoretical concepts, proposes that the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) might happen earlier than expected. He further anticipates that AI might soon surpass human intelligence, evolving into Artificial Superintelligence, or ASI.
At the recent Useful AGI Conference in Panama, renowned computer scientist Ben Goertzel hinted that the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI) might be closer than what was initially expected.
In his concluding statement, Goertzel forecasted that achieving AI with human or superior intelligence might not occur until 2029 or 2030. However, he did not rule out the chance of it happening as soon as 2027.
After reaching this significant point, he suggested that AGI might quickly develop into artificial superintelligence (ASI), embodying the entire cumulative wisdom of human society.
Addressing the conference attendees, Goertzel admitted the unpredictability involved in the creation of AGI, saying, "We have not yet achieved the creation of artificial general intelligence at a human level; there is no concrete understanding of when we will reach this milestone."
Nevertheless, he conveyed his conviction that achieving AGI at par with human intelligence in the coming three to eight years is a viable possibility.
Goertzel's forecast matches those made by other professionals in the same sector. Shane Legg, co-founder of Google DeepMind, has proposed a 50/50 likelihood of AGI being developed by 2028. In addition, Geoffrey Hinton, often referred to as an "AI patriarch," believes that AGI could be accomplished in a time frame of five to 20 years.
Goertzel, recognized for developing the human-like robot Sophia, has often theorized about the timeframe of the "singularity" – a stage where AI equals and even surpasses human intellectual capacity.
Progress in big language models (LLMs), like OpenAI's ChatGPT, have drawn the potential of AGI nearer. However, Goertzel underscores that solely relying on LLMs won't lead to AGI.
He imagines that once AGI attains the same level of intelligence as a human, it could quickly improve its own abilities, resulting in a "burst of intelligence."
Nonetheless, Goertzel's forecasts are not without conditions. He concedes that even an exceptionally advanced AI would not have a "consciousness" similar to humans. He also underscores the importance of contemplating the societal repercussions and ecological effects of AI progression.
Even with these factors in mind, Goertzel's theory continues to be persuasive, especially considering the swift advancements in AI in the past few years.
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