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Scientist at Beneficial AGI Summit predicts Artificial General Intelligence comparable to human intelligence in 3-8 years
Ben Goertzel, a leading authority in AI and its theoretical concepts, has proposed that the arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) might be earlier than expected. He further speculated that shortly thereafter, AI could surpass human intelligence, evolving into Artificial Superintelligence, or ASI.
During the latest Beneficial AGI Summit in Panama, renowned computer scientist Ben Goertzel shared his viewpoint that the emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI) might occur earlier than previously expected.
In his concluding statements, Goertzel anticipated that AI, comparable to or surpassing human intelligence, might not be realized until 2029 or 2030. However, he mentioned it could potentially occur sooner, possibly even by 2027.
After reaching this significant point, he suggested that AGI might quickly advance into artificial superintelligence (ASI), encapsulating all the accumulated wisdom of human civilization.
Addressing the conference attendees, Goertzel admitted the ambiguity linked with the progress of AGI, noting, "Human-level artificial general intelligence is still unachieved; no one possesses concrete understanding of its expected timeline."
Nonetheless, he conveyed his conviction that attaining AGI at a human-level in the coming three to eight years is conceivable.
Goertzel's forecast is in line with similar predictions made by other specialists in the sector. Shane Legg, the co-founder of Google DeepMind, has proposed that there's an equal probability of AGI being developed by 2028. Meanwhile, Geoffrey Hinton, who is considered a pioneer in AI, believes AGI can be accomplished in a span of five to 20 years.
Goertzel, who is recognized for developing the robot Sophia, has often theorized about when the "singularity" will occur – the moment when AI equals and exceeds human intelligence.
Progress in big language models (LLMs) like OpenAI's ChatGPT have moved the potential of AGI nearer. However, Goertzel underlines that AGI can't be achieved solely through LLMs.
He imagines that once AGI attains the same level of intelligence as humans, it could quickly improve its own abilities, resulting in a sudden surge of intelligence.
Nonetheless, Goertzel's forecasts are not without conditions. He admits that even an exceptionally advanced AI wouldn't have a "mind" similar to humans and emphasizes the importance of contemplating the societal consequences and environmental repercussions of AI growth.
Despite these factors, Goertzel's hypothesis continues to intrigue, especially considering the fast-paced advancement in AI in the past few years.
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