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Scientist projects Human-level Artificial General Intelligence within 3-8 years at Beneficial AGI Summit
Ben Goertzel, a leading voice in AI theory, has proposed that the arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) could be earlier than initially predicted. He also suggested that following this, AI could surpass human intelligence, evolving into Artificial Superintelligence, or ASI.
During the latest Beneficial AGI Summit held in Panama, renowned computer scientist Ben Goertzel hinted that the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI) might occur earlier than initially predicted.
In his concluding statement, Goertzel speculated that achieving AI at the level of or superior to human intelligence might not happen until 2029 or 2030. However, there's a chance it could occur as soon as 2027.
After reaching this significant point, he suggested that AGI might quickly transform into artificial superintelligence (ASI), encompassing all the accumulated wisdom of human society.
Addressing the conference attendees, Goertzel admitted the ambiguity associated with the evolution of AGI, noting, "Human-level artificial general intelligence has not been developed by anyone to date; there's no concrete understanding of when it will be accomplished."
Nonetheless, he conveyed his conviction that attaining AGI at the level of human intelligence in the forthcoming three to eight years is a feasible prospect.
Goertzel's forecast is in harmony with those given by other authorities in the domain. Shane Legg, who helped establish Google DeepMind, proposed a balanced probability of AGI being developed by 2028. Meanwhile, Geoffrey Hinton, often viewed as a pioneering figure in AI, predicts that AGI could be realized anywhere between five to 20 years.
Goertzel, recognized for developing the humanoid robot Sophia, has often theorized about the timeline of the "singularity," the moment when AI equals and exceeds human intellect.
Progress in expansive language models (LLMs), like ChatGPT from OpenAI, have pushed the prospect of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) nearer. Nevertheless, Goertzel underlines that LLMs by themselves are not the route to achieving AGI.
He imagines that once AGI attains the same level of intelligence as humans, it could quickly improve its own skills, resulting in a "surge of intelligence."
Nonetheless, Goertzel's forecasts bear certain qualifications. He concedes that an extraordinarily advanced AI would not have a "consciousness" comparable to that of humans. He also emphasizes the importance of reflecting on the societal consequences and environmental effects of AI progression.
Even with these factors in mind, Goertzel's hypothesis continues to be persuasive, especially considering the swift advancement of AI in the recent past.
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