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Scientist at Beneficial AGI Summit predicts human-like Artificial General Intelligence within 3-8 years
A leading authority in AI and its conceptual elements, Ben Goertzel, has proposed that the arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) could be earlier than expected. He further postulated that shortly thereafter, AI could surpass human intelligence, evolving into Artificial Superintelligence, or ASI.
During the latest Beneficial AGI Summit held in Panama, renowned computer scientist, Ben Goertzel, who is well-known in the theoretical realm, proposed that the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI) might occur earlier than what was earlier predicted.
In his final comments, Goertzel speculated that achieving AI on par with or surpassing human intelligence might not occur until 2029 or 2030. However, he also suggested the potential for this to happen sooner, possibly by 2027.
After reaching this landmark, he suggested that AGI might swiftly transform into artificial superintelligence (ASI), embodying the entire accumulated wisdom of human society.
Addressing the conference attendees, Goertzel acknowledged the unpredictability in developing AGI, saying, "Human-level artificial general intelligence hasn't been developed by anyone yet; no one has a concrete understanding of when it will be achieved."
Nonetheless, he conveyed his conviction that achieving AGI comparable to human intellect in the forthcoming three to eight years is possible.
Goertzel's forecast is in line with the projections of other specialists in the industry. Shane Legg, who co-founded Google DeepMind, proposed that there's an equal possibility of AGI being developed by 2028. Similarly, Geoffrey Hinton, who is considered a pioneer in AI, believes that AGI could be realized in a span of five to 20 years.
Goertzel, who is renowned for developing the humanoid robot Sophia, has often hypothesized about the occurrence of the "singularity," a stage where AI equals and exceeds human intellect.
Progress in big language models (LLMs), like OpenAI's ChatGPT, have brought us nearer to achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI). However, Goertzel stresses that achieving AGI cannot be done with LLMs alone.
He imagines that when AGI attains the same level of intelligence as humans, it could quickly improve its own abilities, resulting in a sudden surge of intelligence.
Goertzel's forecasts, though, are not without reservations. He concedes that an extremely advanced AI would not have a "consciousness" similar to human beings and emphasizes the importance of contemplating the social consequences and environmental effects of AI advancement.
Even with these factors in mind, Goertzel's theory continues to be persuasive, considering the fast advancement of AI in the past few years.
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