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Scientist predicts Human-like Artificial General Intelligence within 3-8 years at Beneficial AGI Summit
Ben Goertzel, a leading authority on AI and its theoretical components, has proposed that the arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) could be earlier than expected. He further speculated that AI could rapidly surpass human intelligence, evolving into Artificial Superintelligence, or ASI.
During the latest Beneficial AGI Summit held in Panama, renowned computer scientist Ben Goertzel proposed that the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI) might come earlier than previously expected.
In his concluding statement, Goertzel anticipated that AI with human-like or superior intelligence might not be realized until 2029 or 2030, but there's a chance it could occur sooner, possibly by 2027.
After reaching this significant point, he suggested that AGI might quickly progress into artificial superintelligence (ASI), encompassing all the accumulated wisdom of human society.
Addressing the conference attendees, Goertzel admitted to the unpredictability regarding the creation of AGI, saying, "Human-level artificial general intelligence has not been developed by anyone so far; no one has a clear understanding of when it will be achieved."
Nonetheless, he conveyed his conviction that achieving AGI on par with human intelligence in the upcoming three to eight years is a feasible scenario.
Goertzel's forecast corresponds with comparable projections offered by other specialists in the industry. Shane Legg, who co-founded Google DeepMind, proposed that there's an equal probability of AGI being developed by 2028. Meanwhile, Geoffrey Hinton, who is often seen as a pioneering figure in AI, predicts that AGI can be realized in a time frame of five to 20 years.
Goertzel, who is famous for developing the human-like robot Sophia, has often theorized about the "singularity" – the moment when AI equals and exceeds human intellect.
Progress in large language models (LLMs) like OpenAI's ChatGPT has made Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) seem more achievable. However, Goertzel stresses that LLMs by themselves are not the key to realizing AGI.
He imagines that once AGI attains the same level of intelligence as humans, it could swiftly improve its own abilities, resulting in a sudden surge of intelligence.
Goertzel's forecasts, though, are not without conditions. He admits that even an AI with abilities surpassing human capabilities won't have a "consciousness" similar to that of a human. He emphasizes the importance of considering the social consequences and ecological effects of AI advancement.
Even with these factors in mind, Goertzel's hypothesis continues to be persuasive, especially considering the swift advancement of AI in recent years.
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