AGI Summit Insights: Scientist Predicts Human-Level Artificial Intelligence Within 3-8 Years

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Scientist predicts human-equivalent Artificial General Intelligence within 3-8 years at Beneficial AGI Summit

Ben Goertzel, a leading personality in AI and its conceptual elements, has proposed that the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) could occur earlier than expected. He further speculated that AI might quickly surpass human intelligence, evolving into Artificial Superintelligence, or ASI.

At the latest Beneficial AGI Summit held in Panama, renowned computer scientist Ben Goertzel, who is a leading authority in the theoretical domain, proposed that the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI) might happen earlier than initially expected.

In his concluding statement, Goertzel speculated that attaining AI of human-level or beyond might not occur until 2029 or 2030, but there’s a chance it could transpire as soon as 2027.

After reaching this significant point, he suggested that AGI might quickly progress into artificial superintelligence (ASI), encompassing all the accumulated wisdom of human society.

Addressing the conference attendees, Goertzel admitted the ambiguity associated with the evolution of AGI. He said, "We have yet to develop artificial general intelligence at a human level; no one has a definite understanding of when we will achieve this."

Nonetheless, he conveyed his conviction that attaining AGI on par with human intelligence in the forthcoming three to eight years seems feasible.

Goertzel's forecast is in agreement with projections made by other specialists in the area. Shane Legg, a co-creator of Google DeepMind, has proposed a 50% probability of AGI being developed by 2028. Meanwhile, Geoffrey Hinton, who is known as an "AI pioneer," believes AGI could be accomplished in a span of five to 20 years.

Goertzel, recognized for his creation of the humanoid robot Sophia, has often theorized about when the "singularity" might occur. This term refers to the moment when AI's intelligence equals and then exceeds that of humans.

Progress in the development of large language models (LLMs), like OpenAI's ChatGPT, have moved us closer to achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI). However, Goertzel insists that LLMs by themselves won't lead us to AGI.

He imagines that once AGI attains the same level of intelligence as humans, it could swiftly improve its own abilities, resulting in a sudden surge of intelligence.

Nonetheless, Goertzel's forecasts are not without reservations. He admits that even an extraordinarily advanced AI wouldn't have a "consciousness" similar to humans and emphasizes the importance of contemplating the societal repercussions and ecological consequences of AI progression.

Even with these factors in mind, Goertzel's theory continues to be persuasive, considering the swift advancements in AI over the past few years.

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